Annual Monitoring Report 2008/09

Future Delivery

3.14 Determining likely future levels of housing delivery is difficult due to the number of uncertainties involved but the Government in its Core Output Indicators requires local authorities to indicate likely levels of future housing expected to come forward based on the supply of deliverable sites. This aspect of the trajectory must illustrate the level of net additional housing expected to come forward over at least a 15 year period or up to the end of the Plan period, whichever is longer. The trajectory is therefore based on the RSS housing requirement since the RCUDP has an end date of 2016 and its requirement has already been met. The RSS not only forms part of the statutory development plan for the district but is also a more recent plan. Therefore for the 15 year trajectory the RSS period to 2026 has been selected.

3.15 The first year is the current monitoring year and being already half way through at the time of submitting the AMR takes account of the number of dwellings already completed in the first two quarters. The next 5 year period sets out the net additional dwellings expected to come forward each year over this 5 year period. The projected net additional dwellings for these two periods is based on deliverable sites as evidenced by the 2009 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA).The actual 5-year figure for the supply of deliverable sites for the 5 year period 2010/11 to 2014/15 will be updated once the first review of the SHLAA has been undertaken (April 2010).

3.16 As shown in Table 3.7 ‘Projected Net Additional Dwellings’ the remainder of the trajectory includes RCUDP allocations without planning permission and the net additional dwellings expected to come forward each year based on an average of net completions over the previous 11 year period covering a time of relatively low and high completions. To this figure are added the likely additions that may arise from sites associated with the potential New Growth Point centred around Brighouse/Halifax. These broadly reflect the figures submitted with the Programme of Development to Government but for the purpose of this report, whilst firmer than broad locations, have been moved forward given the lack of firm information on their deliverability. These could contribute to supply up to around 2020. As the Core Strategy and Land Allocations and Designations Development Plan Documents (DPDs) progress, sites will be allocated to reflect the RSS housing requirement.

3.17 Government through its core indicators requires the figures for future net housing additions based on deliverable supply to be adjusted into managed delivery in order to reflect completions in previous years and influences on housing delivery including market trends. Current  economic conditions are having a significant effect on housing delivery and it is anticipated that this will continue over the next few years as evidenced by the low level of starts together with sites under construction in the past year. The projected net additional dwelling figures have therefore been adjusted downwards for the first years of the forward trajectory, despite the existing significant supply of deliverable sites for this period. The current year has been adjusted to reflect completion rates in the first two quarters and to take account of low levels of starts suggesting that the third and fourth quarters are unlikely to exceed the first half year. The subsequent 2 years have been reduced by 30% in order to reflect market conditions and the likely time required by the building industry to recover its capacity. For the next 3 years an assumption has been made that there will be some upturn in output. These figures are above those shown in the SHLAA but this reflects the fact that deliverable sites are skewed towards the initial part of the period covered by the SHLAA and will carry forward into subsequent years.  No adjustment has been made for the remainder of the RSS period since the housing market may be recovering by this time and sites which will be allocated in the relevant Local Development Framework Documents should have started to come forward. Phasing policies in the relevant development plan documents will assist in managing the delivery of housing once these documents have been adopted. This is illustrated in Table 3.8 ‘Managed Delivery Based on RSS 2008’ whilst Figure 3.2 ‘Housing Trajectory 2001 to 2026 based on RSS (2008)’ shows that the RSS housing requirement may be met around 2021.

*Actual completions Quarters 1 & 2 = 175
 

*Figures rounded to nearest 10

Figure 3.2 Housing Trajectory 2001 to 2026 based on RSS (2008) (Housing Trajectory 2001 to 2026 PDF: opens in a new window)