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Economic update

The full Economic Update briefing paper is available to download: Economic Update [PDF file 543KB]|

A summary of the key developments for December 2011

• The headline claimant count total in November 2011 was 30 above the October figure at 6,305. This figure is 12.5% above the November 2010 figure.
• Calderdale’s claimant count unemployment rate in September was 4.8%, the same as October and a slight fall since the September peak. It remains slightly above the regional rate of 4.5% and significantly above the UK rate of 3.9%.
• The most recent measure of unemployment figures based on the Labour Force Survey (using the ILO definition) covers the twelve months from April 2010 to March 2011. This showed total unemployment of 8,600 and an unemployment rate of 8.6%, a little below the figures for the corresponding period the previous year.
• The unemployment rate on this measure, 8.6%, was slightly higher than the regional one of 8.7% and 1% above the national rate.
• The latest national unemployment rates based on the Labour Force Survey showed a rise in the latest quarter, compared to the previous quarter.
• In the early part of the recession, male unemployment rose disproportionately. In contrast, since mid 2009, male unemployment in Calderdale has fallen, while female unemployment has risen, with the result that women now make up a larger proportion of the total claimant count than they did prior to the recession.
• From early 2008 until spring 2010, unemployment among young adults rose somewhat less rapidly than among the rest of the working age population. However, this pattern has since been reversed, with unemployment among under 25s showing a very large rise of 18% since April 2010, while for the 25 – 49 age group it rose by just 0.4%, and in the 50+ age group it fell by over 7%.
• The number in long-term unemployment (>12 months) has been rising steadily since June 2011, and at 960 is now over 15% of the total unemployed, although still below the regional and national rates of around 18%.
• The number unemployed longer than six months is now 2,370. The figure has been rising throughout 2011, and is slightly higher than the peak reached in September 2009. The November 2011 figure was 43% above the November 2010 total. Those unemployed longer than six months account for 37.6% of total unemployment in Calderdale, below both the regional rate of 40.7% and the national rate of 40.1%.
• • Over the last twelve months, ward unemployment has risen in all but three wards. The exceptions were Calder (down 4.7%), Northowram & Shelf (down 4.7%) and Hipperholme & Lightcliffe (down 0.5%).
• Compared with November 2010, the largest percentage rises in unemployment have occurred in Warley, with 96 more unemployed (rate now 5.4%), Park (187 more, rate 9.2%), Todmorden (63 more, rate 4.4%), and Town (85 more, rate 7.1%).
• The wards with the highest unemployment rates remain Park (9.2%), Ovenden (8.7%), Town (7.1%), and Illingworth & Mixenden (6.6%). The lowest rates are in Northowram & Shelf (2.2%), Hipperholme & Lightcliffe (2.8%), and Luddendenfoot (2.9%).
• Overall numbers of vacancies notified to job centres are higher than a year ago. There have been rises in vacancies for Personal Service; Process, Plant and Machine Operators; Associated Professional and Technical Occupations, Sales and Customer Service and Skilled Trades, and a fall in Administrative and Secretarial vacancies. In the last quarter, the Banking & Finance sector accounted for 69% of notified vacancies.
• CMBC Benefits Service total caseload has shown an upward trend from 2008 until June 2011. It fell in July and August, and has remained fairly steady since, rising slightly in November to 22,070. New claims in November 2011 were slightly higher than in November 2010, at 1,031.
• Land registry data shows that, after falling between August 2010 and January 2011, house prices in Calderdale have been fluctuating around an average £100,000 through 2011. The latest (September 2011) average price, of £99,919, is 8% below the figure twelve months earlier and 16% below figures at the beginning of 2008.
• The volume of house sales dropped sharply in January 2011, then rose slowly up to June 2011, since when it has remained steady. While the pattern of house sales over the last two years is very similar to the national one, sales in Calderdale remain lower than the national average, and the gap is increasing. Calderdale sales are significantly lower than in January 2008, while nationally they are now higher.
• Enquiries to the Citizens’ Advice Bureau showed a small rise compared with the previous year. The latest quarter’s figures (September - November 2011) were unchanged from the previous quarter, but slightly higher than the corresponding quarter last year.
• Housing advice contacts have been rising since September, and are now at their highest since March this year. The total is around the same as November last year.
• Crime figures have not been updated since the previous report. Latest crime figures for notifiable offences for 2010/11 showed a year-on-year fall in total offences of 8.3%, with largest falls in Criminal Damage and Violent Offences.
• Data on numbers of working-age clients has a lag of six months. The latest data shows that in May 2011, 20,430 people in Calderdale received one or more benefits payable to people of working age. This represents almost 16% of the working-age population, and was little changed from the previous figure.
• Sector of employment figures have not been updated since the previous report. Figures from 2010 for Sector of Employment show that manufacturing in Calderdale continues to decline and yet remains substantially higher than the national proportion. Services now account for almost 80% of employment in Calderdale, and nearly 85% nationally, while Construction and Primary sectors contribute about 5%, somewhat below the national figure.
• Latest (2010) Business Demography figures, show that while “births” i.e. start-ups, continue to fall, “deaths” i.e. closures continue to rise. Since 2009, “deaths” have exceeded “births”, both locally, regionally, and nationally, and the gap is increasing.
• Household income data has not been updated. Latest household income data shows a rise in median household incomes in Calderdale (and for Great Britain as a whole).  Almost one quarter of households in the District have combined incomes (including benefits) of less than £15,000.

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